Midterm Elections Don't Signal The Death Of Obamacare

By John Oncea, Editor

Despite the Republicans renewed threats to repeal the Affordable Care Act, many feel the legislation isn’t going anywhere.

Now that the midterm elections are behind us – and Republicans have gained control of the Senate and added to their House majority – what happens to Obamacare?

Reason.com advises interested parties keep an eye on four things: the impact of Obamacare on Democrats; what part of it will be repealed; what Republicans are going to do moving forward; and how the technology supporting the law holds up.

• Obamacare will continue to be political poison for Democrats suggests Reason.com, noting 24 of the 60 Senators who voted for it in December 2009 are no longer Senators. “The retention rate for upper-chamber legislators who voted for the law is not strong, and the majority of those who are gone were replaced by Republicans,” writes Reason.com.
• Most of Obamacare is here to stay, despite Republican promises to repeal it. “Regardless of the party’s commitment to repeal or its procedural savvy, the vast majority of the law isn’t going anywhere, because (Barack) Obama isn’t going to sign a bill that repeals it,” writes Reason. “If it wasn’t already perfectly clear that he wouldn’t agree to scrap his signature accomplishment, he reiterated his position at a press conference this week. ‘Repeal of the law – I won’t sign,’ he said.”
• Despite the President’s pledge to keep his signature health policy intact, Republicans can and will “nibble around the edges.” Reason writes, “The most likely item on the list is a repeal of the law’s medical device tax, which is opposed by many Democrats – particularly those who represent states where the medical device industry has a strong presence. Republicans will try to make an issue out of the individual mandate which is widely disliked, but Obama won’t let that one get through. The employer mandate, however, might be a successful target: The administration has delayed and undercut the provision on multiple occasions, and liberal policy shops have argued that it’s not necessary.”
• Finally, the technology behind Obamacare – technology that failed miserably last year – will be tested again this year. Reason notes, “There’s no doubt that the exchange, the front end of which was reasonably functional by the end of last year’s open enrollment period, will perform significantly better when this year’s open enrollment period starts later this month. But much of the back-end functionality – the guts of the system – remains incomplete, and that’s going to cause some problems.”

NBC News did Reason one better, citing five reasons the new Republican Congress can’t gut Obamacare. NBC agrees Obama isn’t going to “allow his signature piece of legislation to be gutted,” and further points out Republicans “don’t have the 60 seats needed to override a Democratic-led filibuster” either.

NBC also agrees Republicans can simply tweak provisions, working in concert with Democrats to introduce “some really cheap plans called ‘copper’ plans, that won’t cost much and also won’t cover much; loosening the requirements that most employers provide health insurance and perhaps changing the definition of part-time worker from the current 30 hours a week; and perhaps allowing people to renew bare-bones plans that don’t comply with the healthcare law’s requirements.”

NBC points out Republicans actually like a lot about the Affordable Care Act as, “It’s great business for health insurance companies, which in turn give plenty of money to Republicans.” Additionally, voters like it. Maybe not in its entirety – 48 percent said they didn’t like Obamacare in an NBC poll – but specific provisions are popular. “People like laws that prevent insurance companies from pulling their insurance just as they become really sick and need it. They like provisions that allow young adults to stay on their parents’ plans. And they really like government subsidies.”

Finally, NBC suggest it’s too late to do anything about it. “As many as 10 million people already have health insurance on the exchanges. The Congressional Budget Office projects that 26 million people will buy health insurance on the exchanges by 2022 and that 12 million people will become newly eligible for Medicaid in the states that choose to expand their offerings by 2022. It would be difficult to take insurance away from that many people.”

Despite claims Obamacare can’t be replaced, Fox News writes it can still happen, quoting House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) as saying the House nest year “will move to repeal Obamacare because it should be repealed. It should be replaced with common sense reforms that respect the doctor-patient relationship.”

Fox News also spoke with health economist John Goodman, who said, “If you repeal it, you're going to have to replace it with something. And repeal and replace is just another way of saying we're going to change Obamacare into something different and better.”

Among the suggested fixes Fox feels the Republicans would pursue would be to include tax subsidies – “in one case, up to about $72,000 a year for a family of four, to buy any insurance plan they want without the restrictions of Obamacare.” Fox feels Republicans would also “guarantee coverage of pre-existing conditions, allow children under 26 to stay on their parents' plans, and scale back many of the taxes in Obamacare.”

One other option, offered up by The Chicago Tribune, is to “repair Obamacare.” The Tribune writes the President should admit that the Affordable Care Act has “failings that cry out to be fixed.” Then, after the Republicans attempt to repeal the law and Obama vetoes it, “It would be wise for Republicans to get beyond repeal and replace, and focus on how to repair Obamacare. A lot of Democrats support changes in the law, and even the most ardent defenders of Obamacare can't pretend that it is so popular with Americans that it should clank along as is.

“Several significant Obamacare fixes would draw considerable support from Republicans and Democrats. A repair bill with significant Democratic support would create more pressure on the president to sign it.”

The Tribune opines such a bill would do away with the medical device tax, spare small businesses from the mandate of offering insurance or paying a penalty, raise the requirement forcing employers to cover employees from 30 to 40 hours a week, and allow insurers to offer less expensive option to people who don’t want complete coverage.

“Some Republicans will see political risk in such a negotiation – a fix to Obamacare would be a tacit admission that it is here to stay. But the alternative is to do nothing, and let Obamacare continue with all its warts,” writes The Tribune. “They might be enticed by that, but they should remember that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid just rode his fierce obstruction to bipartisanship to a crushing loss of control of the Senate.

“Republicans, repair Obamacare. Some Democrats will enlist and many voters will thank you.”